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Thursday, May 29, 2014

ELEPHANT CHASING DRAGON


Can Elephant chase Dragon?
It is the most perplexed question of every economist and every common man in India. expectations running high on the new government,partly because of Modi wave and partly because of India's commending economic fundamentals,the world is closely watching this two great civilizations.
India with 1.28 billion population having 328 million sqkm, is a 1.85 trillion dollar economy.It spends $40 billion as defense spending(2.4% of its GDP)while its counter part, China with 1.35 billion population having 960 million sqkm,is a 8.2 trillion dollar economy. it spends $130 billion as defense spending( 2% of its GDP)


this stats can reveal the picture that while the Elephant is limping the Dragon is flying.
India- china Trade imbalance issue:
How Modi Government can tackle trade imbalance with china?how big is the problem?. India currently runs a$ 35 billion annual trade deficit with china. It is half of the remittances India receive annually,it is 11 billions more than the Foreign Direct Investment ( FDI) India receives annually.
1. If Modi government  can negotiate with china, to halve the import duty on cotton fabrics from current 10%  India could raise its exports from $700 million to $ 6 billion in five years.
2. If New Delhi could able to negotiate to relax phytosanitary norms, buffalo meat could fetch India another $1 billion annually.relaxation in similar standards in ares such as marine products could add more value to exports from india.
3. Getting access to Chinese markets for Indian pharmaceuticals and IT related services India could bring down the trade deficit to $17 billion in coming three to four years.
If Modi government has to tackle china effectively it should keep in mind Mahatma Gandhi's words "strength does not come from physical capacity but with indomitable will". The foreign policy should be guided with give and take relationship and engage in dialogue and peace.the conundrum of elephant chasing a dragon, should no more be an impossible task.


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